Or just 20,000 people standing in a field?
And I just don't understand quite what this feeling is..."
--Jarvis Cocker (Pulp, Sorted for E's and Wizz)
Here we're going for the Crystal Ball to look at some themes.
- Sell-side juniorisation. Will continue.
- Technology replacing Sales Traders. See Algomi, Neptune, B2Scan and the like. Will continue.
- Buy-side investments in trading technology. Will continue.
- Buy-side consolidation. Go big or go home. Either be a niche player or the fixed costs of managing a buy-side will kill your profitability.
- Big data in the buy-side. The next big ticket item reaching the implementation stage rather than the "talking about doing" stage
- FIX Orchestra. Will cut costs and increase the cadence of delivery. Exchanges will be able to get new order types to market, brokers will get new algorithms to market. Speed of change will increase.
- Fixed Income Trading Venues. More to come, more consolidation to follow. But the winner will be the venue that is different. Why do these venues hire ex-Investment Bankers to sell to the buy-side?
- Consortium/co-operation/utility business models. Will increase.
- Technical debt. Will cause many buy-sides to realise that they should engage in M&A to resolve that issue.
- Vendor consolidation. The VCs that have invested in a number of financial technology vendors have realised they didn't invest in "fintech" with the cool-kids. And they want to move on. Expect a number of buy-side technology vendors to change ownership in the next year.